Last weekend, I had a very interesting conversation with a number of folks over canned beer, sitting in a hot tub overlooking Lake Tahoe.
Someone made a sweeping statement about the end of broadcast television and that in a few years everything would be online. YouTube would be our new ABC, NBC and CBS, and almost everyone agreed. I thought this to be ludicrous and the conversation took off.
The main issue the others had was that the lack of choice we have today with traditional TV will push people to a specialized, personalized media experience. They were saying that technology will enable an on-demand media engagement: connection to scheduled entertainment would go the way of mini-disk and Eight Track.
The main issue I had was the value of intellectual property and the investment it takes to generate serial quality material. For example you aren't going to get a show like "Modern Family" or "House" out of a group of buddies uploading to YouTube. There are just too many moving parts that cost too much money. And even if you can demand it, without content your demands go unanswered.
And after much back and forth and long after our hands became pruney these two points came out:
My Point: Without a significant investment in the product, the entertainment, educational, or news value of the product will not live up to the standards of the consumer; this is especially true of my chums in the hot tub.
Their Point The old advertisement business model no longer will work as technology advances and those who create must change the way they do business in order to survive; without a change of distribution, taste makers, like my chums in the hot tub, will no longer consume mass media.
These issues are not diametrically opposed, but both are at the core of consumer media's future.